Baseline 5-year qualifying period for Settlement to increase to 10 years: Proposed Policy and Potential Impact

LONDON Feb 15: The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, told MPs last week that the government will proceed with extending the standard qualifying period for settlement from five to ten years, even as it continues to consult on other aspects of the proposed reforms.

Giving evidence to the Home Affairs Committee, Mahmood addressed questions on the scope of the consultation, implementation timelines, and whether the changes would apply retrospectively. She stressed that the consultation is “real and open-ended” on several design issues, including transitional protections for migrants already in the UK.

“We are consulting on some of the detail of the proposals,” she said, describing the exercise as “a genuine piece of work.” On transitional arrangements, she added: “In the consultation, we ask a specific question on transitional arrangements… we are genuinely consulting on that.”

Mahmood acknowledged that the reforms could have significant consequences for people already resident in the UK. “I recognise that big changes are potentially happening,” she told the Committee, adding that it was unrealistic to expect no one currently in the country to be affected. “It is inconceivable that literally nobody who is currently here would be affected by any of these changes, and I think we should be up front about that.”

On several unresolved issues—including whether earnings thresholds should be assessed on an individual or household basis, and how children should be treated—she emphasised that decisions had not yet been made. “The consultation is genuinely open on this point,” she said, adding that the government would consider “the totality of the responses” before finalising policy.

However, Mahmood made clear that some headline measures are already settled. “We have already announced that we want to go from a baseline five-year qualifying period to 10 years, which we are not consulting on,” she told MPs. She argued that the existing five-year route was short given the UK’s welfare system. “We have a relatively generous welfare state. Five years is actually quite a short period before people can be permanently settled in the country, with all the benefits that brings. It is therefore right that we extend it.”

Changes to ILR and Settlement: Proposed Policy and Potential Impact: The Migration Observatory

In November 2025, the UK government announced proposals to significantly tighten the rules for permanent residence—also known as settlement or Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR). Central to the reforms is a plan to double the standard qualifying period from five to ten years. This commentary outlines the proposed changes and assesses their likely effects.

At the end of 2024, around 2.2 million people held temporary visas that could lead to settlement, although not all are expected to apply. Under the proposed system, all applicants would face tougher minimum requirements for employment and English language ability. Based on 2024 data, hundreds of thousands of potential applicants were not in work and would therefore fail to meet a mandatory employment threshold.

Waiting times for settlement would vary substantially depending on occupation, earnings, and other characteristics. Care workers and migrants in middle-skilled roles would face a baseline wait of 15 years; at least 325,000 visas have been granted in such roles since 2021. While most main applicants on work visas earn enough to remain on a five-year route, the majority of their dependants do not and would instead face a ten-year baseline wait.

An estimated 430,000 to 520,000 children held temporary visas with a route to settlement at the end of 2024. As of early 2026, the government had not yet clarified how the new rules would apply to those who arrived in the UK as children.

Extending settlement pathways for lower-earning workers creates a trade-off: potential fiscal benefits for the public purse versus possible long-term negative effects on migrant integration. Other consequences are uncertain, including the impact of mandatory employment requirements and whether tougher settlement rules will deter skilled workers from choosing the UK.

What Are the Proposed Changes?

The Home Office estimates that 1.6 million people would be granted ILR between 2026 and 2030 under the current rules. The government argues that reform is necessary to avoid an unusually large surge in settlement grants following record migration levels in the early 2020s. Since settlement confers access to public benefits, ministers—particularly the Home Secretary—have raised concerns about the potential fiscal impact. Any reforms would apply to migrants already resident in the UK.

1. New Minimum Requirements

All settlement applicants would be subject to additional criteria, with exemptions still under consideration. At present, applicants must pass the Life in the UK test, demonstrate English language ability at B1 level, and have no serious criminal record. Under the proposals:

• The English language requirement would rise to B2 (upper-intermediate level).

• Applicants would need to show at least three years of national insurance contributions—effectively requiring earnings of £12,570 or more per year, equivalent to around 19 hours per week at the 2026–27 minimum wage.

2. Longer Waiting Periods, with Exceptions

The standard qualifying period for settlement would increase from five to ten years. Key exceptions include:

• Family members of British citizens (five years)

• Holders of BN(O) visas under the Hong Kong humanitarian route (five years)

• Innovator Founder and Global Talent visa holders (three years)

• EU citizens and others with status under the EU Settlement Scheme (unchanged)

Other groups would face substantially longer baseline waits:

• Skilled Worker visa holders in low- or middle-skilled roles (below RQF level 6): 15 years

• Refugees: 20 years, with the possibility of shorter routes through a new work-and-study protection pathway (details pending)

The existing “long residence” route—allowing settlement after ten years of lawful residence in most visa categories—would be abolished.

Adjustments to Waiting Periods

From these baseline periods, eligibility could be accelerated or delayed based on individual circumstances. Only the single largest adjustment would apply.

Reductions:

• 1 year for English at C1 level

• 5 years for taxable income of at least £50,270

• 7 years for taxable income of at least £125,140

• 5 years for specified public service roles (e.g. education or the NHS; list pending)

• 3–5 years for community contribution such as volunteering (details pending)

Extensions:

• +5 years for receipt of public funds for under 12 months

• +10 years for receipt of public funds for over 12 months

• Up to +20 years for irregular migration, long overstays, or misuse of visitor visas (subject to a 30-year maximum

Overall Impact and Next Steps

Under the proposals, almost all migrants would face longer or equal waits for settlement compared with the current system. The primary exception is very high earners, who could qualify after three years rather than five.

Most measures are subject to a public consultation running until 12 February 2026. The government is also considering further exemptions for vulnerable groups and for migrants who arrive as children.

Several major visa categories—including Student, Graduate, and short-term work routes such as intra-company transfers—would continue not to count towards settlement eligibility. While many holders of these visas currently qualify via the long residence route, this option would no longer be available under the proposed system, with the exception of groups already excluded, such as seasonal workers and those on Ukraine schemes.